Chapter 31

CHAPTER 31

Universally, there was shock and horror around the Cabinet Room table. Every participant in the meeting had questions. Everyone, that is, except for President Porter. For the moment, he felt it best to sit back and listen.

The secretary of defense was the first person recognized. "Define imminent," he said.

"It could be a day," Maggie admitted. "It could be a month. We don't know. A lot depends on what happens on the ground."

"Meaning?"

"President Peshkov has multiple scenarios in which he is prepared to use one or more of his nuclear weapons. The phrase Moscow has been voicing most frequently of late is that Russia has the right to utilize these weapons if its sovereignty is threatened."

"Sovereignty?" the vice president asked. "Meaning if they fear an invasion?"

Maggie turned to address the VP. "It's a catch-all term. While President Peshkov and the Kremlin have been pushing out domestic propaganda claiming that the West is at war with them and wants to destroy Russia, we also believe that sovereignty extends to all of the Ukrainian territory it currently holds in the east, as well as the Crimean Peninsula. Any move to recapture these areas could constitute, by President Peshkov's definition, a threat to Russian sovereignty."

"Absolute insanity," the attorney general stated. "It's like a kindergartner grabbing another child's toy and saying that because he holds it, it now belongs to him and he doesn't have to give it back."

Maggie didn't disagree.

"I know this question has previously been asked, but it's worth bringing up again. Is Peshkov nuts?"

"It's a fair question," Maggie replied. "And one that we have devoted a lot of resources to answering. Technically speaking, President Peshkov's health status is considered a national security issue and is one of the most closely guarded secrets in Russia. That said, we believe he is suffering from some form of cancer and has been undergoing treatment.

"We all remember that long table he was seen sitting at for meetings during Covid. He'd sit at one end and his guest would sit way down at the other. It was obvious, even to nonmedical professionals, that he was going to extraordinary lengths not to contract the virus. We believe that was because he was immunocompromised due to his cancer treatments and therefore much more susceptible to adverse outcomes from Covid.

"Our analysts also noted that many of his televised appearances looked to have been pretaped, in bulk and—"

"Excuse me," the energy secretary said. "In bulk ?"

Maggie nodded. "If you know anyone who has been through a rough bout of chemotherapy, you know that some of the treatments can really sideline you. We believe this has been happening to President Peshkov and, to project an air of status quo strength, he recorded multiple interviews and speeches over the past year in advance. There have been small tells we're able to pick up on, but one of the most interesting was when the Russians forgot to have him do a wardrobe change.

"In a recent speech televised on a Monday, Peshkov announced fresh attacks on Ukraine, only to be seen again on TV that Thursday, in the same suit and tie, discussing economic policies for the upcoming year.

"There have been other things our analysts have noticed. His face has appeared swollen of late, possibly due to prescription steroids given to counteract many of the effects of cancer and its treatment. There also appears to be some facial paralysis on the left side.

"Finally, his right arm seems to have developed some sort of a tremor, which he's working very hard to conceal. When he's seen walking, he swings the arm in an almost exaggerated style. It's a marked difference from past video we have of him. When he's seated at a desk, he grips the desk for the entirety of the appearance with his right hand. If he's seated solely in a chair, the chair has arms and he grips the arm the whole time."

The VP looked at her. "All of these symptoms are from his cancer?"

"We're not sure," Maggie replied. "The facial paralysis may be from a stroke and the tremor could be from Parkinson's."

"But is he nuts?" the AG asked, circling back to his question. "Does he have dementia? Is he psychotic? What can you tell us about his current mental state? If we're not dealing with a rational actor, we need to know that."

"Of course," said Maggie. "What I can tell you is what our experts believe. In the diagnosis of psychopathy, President Peshkov overpresents in three categories: aggression, narcissism, and lack of empathy. That doesn't necessarily make him crazy, but it does make him extremely dangerous. Psychopaths are known for being charming, manipulative, and cunning. Three traits that definitely apply to President Peshkov."

"So what are you telling us? He's Ted Bundy, but with nukes?"

A chorus of uncomfortable laughter resonated around the table.

"In that Bundy was a highly intelligent psychopath, I think you can draw a parallel, but I wouldn't get too hung up on trying to draw a comparison. The important thing to remember when considering President Peshkov's mental state is that he is incapable of being negotiated with. To be clear, he'll ‘appear' to agree to treaties and the like, he'll even sign them, but they don't mean anything to him. They're a tool to manipulate whoever's on the other side. The only thing he understands, the only thing that he respects, is superior force.

"But, to this assessment, let me add one important cultural clarification. We can't view President Peshkov through a strictly American, or Western, lens. His behavior, while abhorrent to us, is in keeping with Russian norms. Life has always been cheap in Russia. As a nation, its leaders have always been willing to throw as many bodies as necessary at a problem, especially in warfare, until that problem ceases to exist. The only thing that matters to them is a successful outcome. Death and destruction, even of their own people, is secondary. President Peshkov has an even lower threshold when it comes to killing Ukrainians."

"To that end," the secretary of state asked, "what other triggers might cause the Russians to use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine?"

"One of the scenarios we're looking at," Maggie explained, "is massive unrest in Russia. In order to preserve his power, President Peshkov might feel the need to bring the war to a rapid close. He could use nuclear weapons to achieve that."

"But the fallout," the secretary of energy interjected, "would not only endanger Russian troops, the radiation could blow back into Russia itself, not to mention multiple client states."

"For which President Peshkov would blame the United States and NATO. Either he would claim we and our allies were about to launch our own nuclear first strike, or that he learned a massive invasion was pending and he needed to push us back. No matter what his assertion would be, no one in Russia is going to challenge it. His citizens will be told his version of events, it will be repeated ad nauseam by the Russian press, any dissenters will be jailed or assassinated, and that will be that."

The secretary of state asked, "Any other trigger scenarios we should know about?"

"If the battlefield tide turns against Russia badly enough, that's one. If Russia loses many significant ships from its Black Sea Fleet, that's another. And a third, which could contribute to internal unrest, is if Ukraine continues to successfully strike targets inside Russia. Anything that erodes the image of President Peshkov as a strong leader who defends Russia and the Russian people could trigger his use of nuclear weapons."

With that, Maggie rested her case.

A few more questions trickled in and once they had been answered, President Porter adjourned the meeting. As the participants stood to leave, Porter asked Maggie and Conroy to join him in the Oval Office, along with the national security advisor.

"Good job in there," Porter said to Maggie as the door closed behind them and they all sat down on the couches facing each other.

"Thank you, Mr. President," she replied.

"As you said, we're operating with a high degree of confidence that President Peshkov has placed tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus and is prepared to use them, correct?"

"That is correct, sir."

"I want to hear your thoughts on how we change his mind."

"I'm not an economist," Maggie replied, "so I can't comment on any further sanctions that could successfully be brought to bear."

"Nor is that what we're looking for from you," the national security advisor replied. "If Peshkov only responds to power, what power would you threaten him with?"

Maggie took a moment to think before responding, "First, I don't think we should threaten him directly. But we could do so indirectly."

President Porter looked at her. "Go on."

"President Peshkov likes to tell us what he's going to do. I think you should do the same, Mr. President. But do it through surrogates."

"Explain."

"We know the Russians study our media, the same way we study theirs. We should gather up a team of retired, high-ranking generals and arm them all with the same talking points. We should see them on every cable and broadcast news program stating that President Peshkov's threat to use nuclear weapons is absolutely untenable and that the United States will not stand for it.

"Then, when the host asks what the response should be if Russia does use one, each surrogate should say, ‘I no longer advise the White House, but if I did, my plan would be to kill every single Russian soldier in Ukraine, including within the illegally annexed territory in the Donbas and the Crimean Peninsula—all via our nonnuclear and far superior military platforms. Simultaneously, we would sink President Peshkov's entire Black Sea Fleet. Right down to the rowboats.' Finally, I would make sure the surrogates made it crystal clear that whatever bases, be they Russian or third party, that were involved in nuclear weapons being used in Ukraine, they will be completely destroyed as well."

President Porter looked at his national security advisor. "Appropriate?"

"More than appropriate," the man replied, before turning back to Maggie. "But what if the Russians don't get the message?"

"I would suggest that as the surrogates are out delivering their remarks, the secretary of state should be in the air, en route to Moscow. I can give you a list of the top five people who have the greatest influence on President Peshkov. Only one of them is in the government. The other four are in private industry. If the SecState can convey to them what the overwhelming response will look like, it may end up landing in President Peshkov's ear. If it does, it might do so in such a way that he pays attention."

"And if he doesn't?"

"If, despite all our efforts, President Peshkov ignores our warnings and detonates a nuclear weapon in Ukraine, we need to unleash a response so severe that not only will Russia never use a nuclear weapon again, but nobody else will either."